![]() Gold Derby is slightly more divided on Picture and Director.Ģ013 - 12 Years a Slave (PGA) / Gravity (PGA/ DGA)Ģ015 - Spotlight (SAG) / The Revenant ( DGA)Ģ021 - CODA (PGA/SAG) / The Power of the Dog ( DGA) What we don’t yet know is whether Picture and Director will split.Įrik Anderson at AwardsWatch is predicting Everything Everywhere takes Picture and Director. No matter how you slice it, it always seems to come back to Everything, Everywhere All at Once, with no viable alternative to challenge it where the preferential ballot is concerned (if it’s five movies then it’s just a simple competition). Given the uproar over the Best Actress race, and the residual guilt (after everything they’ve done to improve things for non-white actors), the voters might feel still inclined to divert or subvert their personal preferences to vote more for the betterment of society (or their image) overall. The question, as always, to ask is whether the industry has moved through its activist stage or not. And what they like has shifted in the past few years from movies that display great acting to movies that reflect social justice issues in one way or another: what will make them FEEL good about their vote and LOOK GOOD to their fans and followers? ![]() What they like is what will drive this thing all the way home. But with the ranked choice ballot, actors become the key voting bloc. If the Academy had five now, Top Gun: Maverick would have a much easier chance to win. With five, it’s easier to see a big winner like Gladiator or Chicago that wins without Director or Screenplay. The actors tend to be the deciding factor, and if they’re not into Top Gun: Maverick (which it doesn’t appear that they are) then it isn’t likely to win the Best Picture Oscar. The voters don’t always comply with the consensus, especially if the critics are behind it. Is that likely to happen? It would be a huge shock, but probably one that, once in motion, would be hard to slow down. The red meat pick trumping the more female-oriented, feel-good movie. What would be The Departed of this year? Probably Top Gun: Maverick. It reminds me of Little Miss Sunshine, though, meaning it might have a better chance to win on a preferential ballot. These are two of the greatest films of all time, it should be said, so for EEAAO to land in that esteemed company would be saying a lot. The only times the DGA has given their award to two directors were in 1961 (Robert Wise and Jerome Robbins for West Side Story) and in 2007 (Joel and Ethan Coen for No Country for Old Men). ![]() You might as well start focusing on the only two open categories, Best Actor and Best Actress. If they both go for EEAAO, stick a fork in it. The DGA voters are one of the largest groups in the industry, second only to SAG. The latest has our friend Jazz going out on a limb with Todd Field for TAR, while Queen Anne is going for Spielberg:Īnd then the two champs of late, Wilson Morales and Joyce Eng, are going all in with The Daniels: Let’s look around at what people are predicting elsewhere. We just have no intel at the moment of how a voting body of 16,000 members is going to vote on a five nominee ballot, as opposed to a ten nominee ballot, which will happen the following weekend.Įither the race is a done deal starting this weekend - if the Daniels win for Everything, Everywhere All at Once - or it’s a real race, if anyone else wins. Otherwise, they’ll stick with the consensus, meaning they’ll pick the contenders we think they’re going to pick. It should be noted that consensus building has more or less overtaken analysis, unless the voters revolt - which they might do. This weekend, we will find out just how accurate our analysis has been of this race. ![]() ![]() Download: 2023 Oscar Predictions - It All Starts With the Directors Guild ![]()
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